0x117fda4b63ba1c26bf626d74afc16a2821aa550f
- Realised P&L
- $3.43
- Volume
- $34.54
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $11.74
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar9.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration49.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $117.50 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.350 | 0.910 | $2.60 | +$1.60 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.340 | 0.765 | $2.25 | +$1.25 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? · Yes | 0.500 | 1.000 | $2.00 | +$1.00 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 16? · Up | 0.640 | 0.730 | $1.14 | +$0.14 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.660 | 0.740 | $1.12 | +$0.12 |
| Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.810 | $1.04 | +$0.04 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $367.50 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.780 | $1.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $162 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.195 | $0.33 | −$0.67 |
| Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.120 | $0.26 | −$0.74 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.00at 0.339Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of September 7 2026?
- +$0.67at 0.600US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?
- +$0.41at 0.710US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?
- +$0.40at 0.718Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during RNC Convention?
- +$0.31at 0.767Will Trump say "America First" during RNC Convention?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 10:40 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 16? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 02:38 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 18:16 | Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 09:45 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 23:50 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 15:50 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $117.50 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 07:47 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $162 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 23:46 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $367.50 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 07:09 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $180 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 23:04 | Will Trump say "Afford" or "Affordable" or "Affordability" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 22:48 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $220 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 22:36 | Will Trump say "America First" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 13:53 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 02:51 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 17:04 | Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |