lajiaoo
0x114afd41d96b2b3b239c88f7789e426c256c9a8e
- Realised P&L
- $221.40
- Volume
- $161.1k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $101.28
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration83.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration75.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? · Yes | 0.283 | 0.282 | $76.28 | −$0.14 |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? · No | 0.770 | 1.000 | $25.00 | +$5.75 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$320.57at 0.277Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?
- +$49.01at 0.500Ethereum above $3,900 on December 20?
- +$13.63at 0.540LSU vs. Vanderbilt
- +$-0.10at 0.999Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting?
- +$-0.10at 0.995Will SPD win the most seats in the next German election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-18 06:54 | Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? | BUY | 0.283 | $25.47 |
| 03-16 06:58 | Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season? | BUY | 0.277 | $1.94 |
| 12-30 06:40 | Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.203 | $2.84 |
| 12-30 05:55 | Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.207 | $621.00 |
| 12-29 07:12 | Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? | BUY | 0.724 | $2.5k |
| 10-16 07:46 | LSU vs. Vanderbilt | BUY | 0.5399999959 | $16.00 |
| 03-20 09:08 | Kings vs. Blackhawks | BUY | 0.3 | $9.00 |
| 01-21 04:09 | Senators vs. Rangers | BUY | 0.4723810179 | $90.00 |
| 01-21 03:57 | Will SPD win the most seats in the next German election? | SELL | 0.994 | $102.46 |
| 01-21 03:56 | Will SPD win the most seats in the next German election? | BUY | 0.995 | $102.57 |
| 01-21 03:56 | Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | SELL | 0.998 | $102.56 |
| 01-21 03:55 | Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $102.67 |
| 12-18 02:26 | Ethereum above $3,900 on December 20? | BUY | 0.5 | $49.01 |
| 12-18 02:00 | Is Luigi Mangione YouTube channel real? | SELL | 0.989 | $53.66 |
| 12-18 01:59 | Is Luigi Mangione YouTube channel real? | BUY | 0.993 | $53.89 |