discretradoor
0x113adeabb0b5ccc51acc909e95758bbeaec189c0
- Realised P&L
- $-11.4k
- Volume
- $1.06M
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $81.17
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)14.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.283 | 0.045 | $81.17 | −$428.88 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$340.00 |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? · No | 0.044 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$299.84 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.082 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.5k |
| Will Trump resign today? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$182.23 |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? · Yes | 0.022 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$499.72 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.02at 0.650Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025?
- +$-0.00at 0.320Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025?
- +$-89.30at 0.115Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?
- +$-99.68at 0.200Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86000 on Apr 18?
- +$-270.00at 0.076Trump out as President in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-26 09:29 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0829999999 | $1.0k |
| 06-16 13:08 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.108 | $2.8k |
| 06-15 07:12 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1079999999 | $596.04 |
| 05-09 12:35 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0749999999 | $1.2k |
| 03-14 13:07 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | SELL | 0.0805769624 | $209.70 |
| 03-14 13:05 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | BUY | 0.1148921359 | $299.00 |
| 01-29 09:10 | Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | BUY | 0.0129999999 | $199.90 |
| 01-19 12:58 | Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | BUY | 0.0444048934 | $299.85 |
| 01-19 12:57 | Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | BUY | 0.0417090057 | $299.84 |
| 01-14 08:54 | Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.2827767927 | $510.05 |
| 01-11 16:20 | Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | SELL | 0.2079971454 | $510.05 |
| 12-07 14:22 | Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | BUY | 0.6031477902 | $1.5k |
| 09-17 09:51 | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.001 | $20.00 |
| 09-16 18:08 | No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.017 | $340.00 |
| 09-04 07:32 | Trump out as President in 2025? | SELL | 0.05 | $525.00 |