Etay0044
0x112dad32d8e94685d75d1d511242bbf78e0018b9
- Realised P&L
- $7.9k
- Volume
- $179.3k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $852.98
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration99.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration96.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.295 | 0.285 | $821.11 | −$28.89 |
| Israeli Knesset election annulled? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.035 | $31.86 | −$68.14 |
| Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.071 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.59 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$202.73 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.4kat 0.313Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- +$66.02at 0.364Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- +$51.85at 0.540Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?
- +$-0.79at 0.860Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?
- +$-32.59at 0.160Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 18:15 | Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2760531757 | $350.00 |
| 11-01 18:13 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.33 | $1.4k |
| 11-01 17:31 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? | SELL | 0.2299319006 | $465.95 |
| 10-31 18:01 | Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099380123 | $500.00 |
| 10-31 18:00 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.4399999947 | $20.00 |
| 10-29 07:51 | Israeli Knesset election annulled? | BUY | 0.1098463668 | $100.00 |
| 10-28 20:17 | Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority? | SELL | 0.0053702761 | $105.71 |
| 10-28 06:43 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.41 |
| 10-28 00:29 | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.9878718861 | $16.7k |
| 10-28 00:20 | Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority? | BUY | 0.0942059549 | $511.58 |
| 10-27 23:53 | Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority? | SELL | 0.197 | $2.0k |
| 10-27 23:16 | Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority? | BUY | 0.1558460288 | $1.6k |
| 10-27 23:15 | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.93 | $1.6k |
| 10-27 22:53 | Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority? | BUY | 0.1750050521 | $449.00 |
| 10-27 22:49 | Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority? | BUY | 0.1718003304 | $2.0k |