0x11103fba41032dfa9cb4dac4a48a2ebcbcb125e4
0x11103fba41032dfa9cb4dac4a48a2ebcbcb125e4
- Realised P&L
- $-8.16
- Volume
- $266.21
- Markets traded
- 69
- Open portfolio
- $1.35
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded69
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26? · Yes | 0.740 | 1.000 | $1.35 | +$0.35 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.18at 0.331Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$3.49at 0.371Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$2.95at 0.410Will Trump say "Kamala" during remarks in New York?
- +$2.70at 0.270Will OpenRouter process between 185T and 195T tokens the week of October 19?
- +$2.29at 0.472Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 20:53 | Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3129999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 10:02 | Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 02:01 | Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 10-27 18:01 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-27 10:00 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 27? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 10-27 00:02 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-26 16:00 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 10-24 06:48 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.7799995632 | $1.00 |
| 10-22 09:51 | Will OpenRouter process between 185T and 195T tokens the week of October 19? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 10-22 00:42 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 01:15 | Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? | BUY | 0.5089998814 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 17:11 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 09:10 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 22:55 | Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 13:32 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |