tyler53
0x10f836866679d7b88474cf827abd2a1ae5b547ac
- Realised P&L
- $-10.65
- Volume
- $11.2k
- Markets traded
- 81
- Open portfolio
- $17.26
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded81
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Goiás? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.949 | $17.26 | +$0.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.37at 0.996Pam Bondi out as Attorney General in July?
- +$0.25at 0.995Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by July 31?
- +$0.16at 0.990Will Google have the second best AI model on September 30?
- +$0.12at 0.991Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April?
- +$0.10at 0.989Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-27 09:35 | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Goiás? | BUY | 0.91 | $16.56 |
| 01-31 13:38 | Will Lighter dip to $1.00 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.07 |
| 01-30 15:44 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.9979999992 | $23.20 |
| 01-30 15:39 | Will XRP dip to $1.00 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.23 |
| 01-30 12:27 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January? | BUY | 0.9979999858 | $34.31 |
| 12-30 09:03 | Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.19 |
| 12-30 01:43 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $9.10 |
| 12-30 01:29 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.996 | $9.25 |
| 12-29 23:56 | Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.07 |
| 12-29 21:21 | Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $37.02 |
| 10-31 16:01 | Will Solana dip to $150 in October? | BUY | 0.9989999721 | $25.27 |
| 10-31 15:27 | Will Z.ai have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $19.41 |
| 09-29 12:50 | Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $14.61 |
| 09-29 03:16 | Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.47 |
| 09-29 00:21 | Will Google have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.99 | $16.25 |