0x10C9da9C478345CbE4419dAf21CB31b4920f1696-1773090166847
0x10c9da9c478345cbe4419daf21cb31b4920f1696
- Realised P&L
- $366.12
- Volume
- $43.7k
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $321.34
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.225 | 0.069 | $150.70 | −$343.29 |
| Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.049 | $128.21 | +$63.81 |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.607 | 0.085 | $42.44 | −$260.84 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$260.99 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.700 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$280.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$392.98at 0.459Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- +$247.89at 0.614Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$235.00at 0.510Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
- +$115.00at 0.367Ledger IPO before 2027?
- +$106.20at 0.581Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-26 10:34 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.889 | $88.90 |
| 04-08 11:07 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.313 | $15.72 |
| 03-24 23:11 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | SELL | 0.82 | $9.17 |
| 03-19 19:08 | US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | BUY | 0.3 | $15.00 |
| 03-17 17:10 | Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.026 | $1.72 |
| 03-15 00:25 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.229 | $11.39 |
| 03-11 00:00 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY | 0.6990022495 | $6.99 |
| 03-11 00:00 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY | 0.6990022447 | $13.98 |
| 03-10 23:53 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY | 0.6991206774 | $55.93 |
| 03-10 23:52 | Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $35.00 |
| 03-10 23:31 | Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? | BUY | 0.8 | $200.00 |
| 03-10 00:07 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.7197064699 | $122.35 |