0x10B30364936B03d26B3FD01a63D1f991454b40d4-1723051915288
0x10b30364936b03d26b3fd01a63d1f991454b40d4
- Realised P&L
- $2.5k
- Volume
- $15.81M
- Markets traded
- 647
- Open portfolio
- $14.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded647
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.599 | 0.555 | $7.8k | −$609.58 |
| Will MrBeast announce a Presidential run before 2027? · No | 0.960 | 0.972 | $4.6k | +$55.27 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.295 | $885.00 | −$945.00 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.230 | $460.00 | −$860.00 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.045 | $450.00 | −$3.0k |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.145 | $290.00 | −$890.00 |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? · Yes | 0.065 | 0.021 | $214.00 | −$436.00 |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.049 | $57.83 | −$37.56 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.182 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.8k |
| France vs. England: Team to Win · France | 0.116 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.2k |
| Will France vs. England end in a draw? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.8k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$376.3kat 0.247Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
- +$226.6kat 0.548Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$109.4kat 0.566Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$81.0kat 0.1902024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104
- +$43.5kat 0.3782024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-18 22:30 | France vs. England: Team to Win | SELL | 0.439 | $702.40 |
| 07-18 22:28 | France vs. England: Team to Win | SELL | 0.22 | $4.4k |
| 07-18 21:49 | France vs. England: Team to Win | BUY | 0.022 | $82.46 |
| 07-18 21:43 | France vs. England: Team to Win | BUY | 0.09 | $900.00 |
| 07-18 21:38 | France vs. England: Team to Win | BUY | 0.08 | $800.00 |
| 07-18 21:34 | Will France vs. England end in a draw? | BUY | 0.18 | $1.8k |
| 07-18 21:34 | Spread: England (-3.5) | BUY | 0.9483120359 | $16.0k |
| 07-18 21:33 | France vs. England: Team to Win | BUY | 0.27 | $2.7k |
| 07-15 20:39 | England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.2425 | $970.00 |
| 07-14 22:11 | Spread: England (-2.5) | BUY | 0.96 | $9.6k |
| 07-14 20:16 | Spread: Spain (-2.5) | BUY | 0.9564600571 | $669.52 |
| 07-12 22:36 | England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.45 | $1.8k |
| 07-12 22:36 | Spread: England (-2.5) | BUY | 0.96 | $9.60 |
| 07-12 22:36 | Spread: England (-2.5) | BUY | 0.96 | $4.5k |
| 07-12 17:00 | England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.45 | $450.00 |