0x10B30364936B03d26B3FD01a63D1f991454b40d4-1723051915288
0x10b30364936b03d26b3fd01a63d1f991454b40d4
- Realised P&L
- $-13.1k
- Volume
- $15.74M
- Markets traded
- 661
- Open portfolio
- $86.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded661
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$376.3kat 0.247Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
- +$226.6kat 0.547Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$109.4kat 0.566Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$81.0kat 0.1902024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104
- +$43.5kat 0.3782024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 21:51 | Spread: Raiders (-10.5) | BUY | 0.947 | $495.28 |
| 10-08 01:03 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.36 | $7.7k |
| 10-07 15:05 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | BUY | 0.08 | $4.0k |
| 10-06 18:22 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.36 | $18.0k |
| 10-06 18:20 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8476098502 | $11.3k |
| 10-06 18:17 | Will MrBeast announce a Presidential run before 2027? | BUY | 0.9791983322 | $335.83 |
| 10-06 18:16 | Will Marjorie Taylor Greene announce a presidential run before 2027? | BUY | 0.95 | $504.14 |
| 10-06 18:16 | Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027? | BUY | 0.9497008798 | $323.85 |
| 10-06 18:15 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.951 | $5.9k |
| 10-06 18:14 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.08 | $8.0k |
| 10-06 18:12 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.845 | $553.57 |
| 10-06 18:08 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.43 | $1.3k |
| 09-14 02:32 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.69 | $18.33 |
| 09-08 19:39 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.869901 | $8.7k |
| 09-08 19:39 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.1367666892 | $410.30 |