mln19
0x108807360cccbe07e85047bda011b3187554b813
- Realised P&L
- $543.24
- Volume
- $156.8k
- Markets traded
- 686
- Open portfolio
- $310.29
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded686
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration9.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$397.75at 0.204Will Trump win Florida by 12+ points?
- +$386.41at 0.468Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be 36% or higher?
- +$343.46at 0.115Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?
- +$297.51at 0.702Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?
- +$295.99at 0.260Will Biden pardon Jim Biden?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-14 11:46 | Will the Republican Party hold between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.014 | $0.66 |
| 08-14 06:46 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.49 | $14.70 |
| 08-13 10:53 | Will the Georgia 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | BUY | 0.08 | $8.00 |
| 08-11 19:21 | Will the Republican Party hold between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.0199341429 | $1.28 |
| 08-06 11:43 | Will the Iowa 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | BUY | 0.170854 | $8.54 |
| 08-06 11:39 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $13.00 |
| 07-29 09:36 | Will the Republican Party hold between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.03 | $1.02 |
| 07-21 10:35 | Will Winston Peters be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections? | SELL | 0.0059 | $0.59 |
| 07-21 10:34 | Will New Zealand First Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.10 |
| 07-21 10:33 | Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | SELL | 0.35 | $3.55 |
| 07-21 10:32 | Will Green Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | SELL | 0.32 | $4.97 |
| 07-21 10:30 | Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | SELL | 0.66 | $6.60 |
| 07-21 10:29 | Will New Zealand First Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | SELL | 0.004 | $0.40 |
| 07-21 10:29 | Will Labour Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | SELL | 0.28 | $30.80 |
| 07-21 10:28 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + NZF? | SELL | 0.001616598 | $0.09 |