s4444d
0x107e6b816a323ee25c6c68551d0cbd25552c05c4
- Realised P&L
- $-4.63
- Volume
- $523.85
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $0.18
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration42.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in October? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.185 | $0.18 | −$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.13at 0.320Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- +$1.27at 0.440Will Coca-Cola (KO) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$0.79at 0.560Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in September?
- +$0.32at 0.760Will Google (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$0.22at 0.820Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 16:13 | Will Amazon say "Robotic / Robotics" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.8799999648 | $1.00 |
| 10-29 12:13 | Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.8199999836 | $1.00 |
| 10-29 08:20 | Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 3.5%? | BUY | 0.381999861 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 20:12 | Will the US national average gas price be between $4.2400 and $4.2499 on October 29? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.42 |
| 10-28 16:23 | Will Trump say "Ass" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 08:15 | Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in September? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-27 20:18 | Will Google (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-27 16:16 | Will three people dissent the October Fed decision? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 10-26 20:24 | Will Invesco (IVZ) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.5799999768 | $1.00 |
| 10-26 20:24 | Will Coca-Cola (KO) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 10-26 08:11 | Will Russia target Kyiv on October 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.859999914 | $1.00 |
| 10-25 13:46 | Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-25 13:46 | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 10-25 13:46 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0599999988 | $1.00 |