0x104aa75b598352f2621958cff38166c1eed2c6ba
0x104aa75b598352f2621958cff38166c1eed2c6ba
- Realised P&L
- $-11.24
- Volume
- $265.67
- Markets traded
- 78
- Open portfolio
- $1.67
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded78
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in October? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.400 | $1.67 | +$0.67 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.12at 0.398Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?
- +$3.07at 0.402Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$2.30at 0.310Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$2.11at 0.492Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?
- +$1.82at 0.361Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 07:15 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in October? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-27 09:59 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-27 01:07 | Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3709999711 | $1.00 |
| 10-26 17:05 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-24 07:33 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 10-23 19:47 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-22 11:18 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of October 19 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-22 00:40 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-20 03:58 | Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 175T tokens the week of October 19? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-19 19:58 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 11:50 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 03:47 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 18:20 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 08:32 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $55 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.6859999753 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 00:02 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |