0x103f41Cb439222A8B60Bf062834c2650DE16C0F2-1772096083904
0x103f41cb439222a8b60bf062834c2650de16c0f2
- Realised P&L
- $54.55
- Volume
- $6.4k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $12.67
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration36.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)45.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.038 | $12.67 | −$37.33 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$66.44at 0.250Will Trump visit China by March 31?
- +$56.25at 0.640Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?
- +$42.13at 0.797U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?
- +$10.00at 0.080Will Trump visit China by April 30?
- +$5.46at 0.551Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-04 15:46 | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | SELL | 0.22 | $84.61 |
| 03-04 14:30 | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | BUY | 0.2599999985 | $100.00 |
| 03-04 09:07 | Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? | SELL | 0.61 | $97.10 |
| 03-03 15:36 | Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? | BUY | 0.6282171148 | $100.00 |
| 03-03 15:35 | Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? | SELL | 0.3590946091 | $97.05 |
| 03-03 10:17 | Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? | BUY | 0.369999998 | $100.00 |
| 03-01 14:42 | Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31? | SELL | 0.5 | $90.77 |
| 03-01 10:39 | Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2? | BUY | 0.64 | $100.00 |
| 03-01 10:35 | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | SELL | 0.16 | $20.00 |
| 03-01 10:34 | Will Trump visit China by March 31? | SELL | 0.4158678227 | $166.44 |
| 02-28 18:41 | Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31? | BUY | 0.5508843117 | $100.00 |
| 02-28 18:40 | Khamenei seen in public by March 14? | SELL | 0.43 | $102.09 |
| 02-28 18:21 | Khamenei seen in public by March 14? | BUY | 0.7794676797 | $125.00 |
| 02-28 18:18 | Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | SELL | 0.625 | $125.00 |
| 02-28 18:11 | Khamenei seen in public by March 14? | BUY | 0.8693512295 | $67.00 |