ughfv
0x1026079cadcc757fcd0147154ccd84976e21b7af
- Realised P&L
- $2.7k
- Volume
- $42.5k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $1.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration28.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · No | 0.590 | 0.990 | $891.00 | +$360.00 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.680 | 0.961 | $365.18 | +$106.78 |
| Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31? · No | 0.780 | 0.770 | $292.60 | −$3.80 |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.890 | 0.875 | $280.00 | −$4.80 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.5k |
| Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.1k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.1kat 0.500Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?
- +$1.6kat 0.500Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
- +$993.83at 0.580Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?
- +$851.55at 0.650Ethereum Up or Down on January 24?
- +$670.00at 0.500Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-29 02:26 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $258.40 |
| 05-24 11:41 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $209.30 |
| 04-26 01:54 | Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | BUY | 0.59 | $531.00 |
| 04-07 02:03 | Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | SELL | 0.799 | $830.96 |
| 03-27 12:28 | Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | BUY | 0.801 | $833.04 |
| 03-21 09:22 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | SELL | 0.65 | $13.92 |
| 03-19 07:52 | Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.64 | $640.00 |
| 03-13 01:42 | Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? | SELL | 0.81 | $3.4k |
| 03-08 08:55 | Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? | SELL | 0.53 | $164.13 |
| 03-08 07:42 | Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? | SELL | 0.53 | $222.60 |
| 02-28 11:35 | Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? | BUY | 0.58 | $2.5k |
| 01-24 08:05 | Ethereum Up or Down on January 24? | BUY | 0.65 | $1.6k |