0x100a75497f8f21585b6dc3395845d41fef330919
- Realised P&L
- not known
- Volume
- not known
- Markets traded
- 336
- Open portfolio
- $89.92
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- ClearMarkets traded336
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)12.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Indonesia this month? · No | 0.610 | 0.365 | $23.00 | −$15.44 |
| Will Core PCE YoY be 3.2% in October? · No | 0.630 | 0.615 | $12.91 | −$0.32 |
| Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate by 25 bps at the January meeting? · No | 0.660 | 0.515 | $10.81 | −$3.04 |
| Israel x Syria diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.520 | $10.40 | +$1.40 |
| Will Iran target Jordan by November 30, 2026? · No | 0.558 | 0.435 | $10.00 | −$2.82 |
| Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of November 2? · No | 0.740 | 0.435 | $9.13 | −$6.41 |
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on November 4? · No | 0.283 | 0.225 | $6.81 | −$1.77 |
| Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.435 | 0.450 | $6.13 | +$0.20 |
| Will Iran target Jordan by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.565 | $0.73 | +$0.29 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.0kat 0.401Lighter Airdrop on December 29?
- +$674.08at 0.144No airdrop in 2025?
- +$416.78at 0.580Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
- +$79.18at 0.680Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
- +$77.03at 0.340SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-20 13:04 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.32 | $139.52 |
| 07-20 11:33 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.46 | $238.74 |
| 07-20 11:33 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.47 | $12.75 |
| 07-19 15:07 | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31? | SELL | 0.59 | $129.99 |
| 07-19 06:51 | Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.56 | $5.60 |
| 07-18 21:28 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.59 | $125.08 |
| 07-18 20:40 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | SELL | 0.38 | $21.66 |
| 07-18 20:40 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | SELL | 0.39 | $7.41 |
| 07-18 20:39 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | SELL | 0.41 | $23.89 |
| 07-18 20:38 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | SELL | 0.45 | $8.56 |
| 07-18 19:50 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July? | SELL | 0.26 | $1.56 |
| 07-18 19:49 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July? | SELL | 0.28 | $5.45 |
| 07-18 19:48 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July? | SELL | 0.31 | $15.50 |
| 07-18 19:48 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July? | SELL | 0.3 | $16.64 |
| 07-18 19:24 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.36 | $21.60 |