0x1009d44aa5040584a61525e31c1678cffa5e8093
0x1009d44aa5040584a61525e31c1678cffa5e8093
- Realised P&L
- $-10.36
- Volume
- $268.55
- Markets traded
- 67
- Open portfolio
- $1.12
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded67
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 28? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.875 | $1.12 | +$0.12 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.62at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
- +$6.62at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
- +$4.18at 0.331Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$3.88at 0.340US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
- +$2.49at 0.452Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 07:51 | Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 28? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 11:40 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 1? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 03:38 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 01:15 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $350 in September? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 15:12 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 05:21 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $328 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.6499999025 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 16:40 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.76 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 07:34 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $224 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.5499999725 | $2.00 |
| 09-03 19:57 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.00 |
| 09-02 19:11 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.5099999566 | $2.00 |
| 09-02 11:00 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4199999454 | $2.00 |
| 09-01 19:43 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 09-01 11:33 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on September 1? | BUY | 0.6599998944 | $2.00 |
| 09-01 03:30 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299999181 | $2.00 |
| 08-23 06:05 | Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999208 | $2.00 |