Hstb
0x0fbf50d089ed1ca05ac162c280f03a0819db723c
- Realised P&L
- $-2.7k
- Volume
- $39.6k
- Markets traded
- 50
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded50
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample44 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.420 | 1.000 | $710.00 | +$411.80 |
| Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? · Yes | 0.548 | 0.165 | $297.00 | −$688.70 |
| Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.438 | 0.059 | $135.66 | −$863.52 |
| Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.061 | $61.00 | −$369.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9AM ET · Down | 0.495 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.73 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12PM ET · Down | 0.543 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.59 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$279.99at 0.595Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 19?
- +$176.00at 0.840Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 20?
- +$172.16at 0.527Bitcoin Up or Down on April 12?
- +$170.29at 0.850Will Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first?
- +$169.20at 0.640Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-13 16:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12PM ET | BUY | 0.5376961741 | $24.27 |
| 04-13 13:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9AM ET | BUY | 0.44 | $20.23 |
| 04-13 10:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down on April 13? | SELL | 0.4331075202 | $83.62 |
| 04-12 16:14 | Bitcoin Up or Down on April 13? | BUY | 0.52 | $96.81 |
| 04-11 16:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down on April 12? | BUY | 0.5 | $92.80 |
| 02-02 13:02 | Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election? | SELL | 0.998 | $1.1k |
| 02-01 12:39 | Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)? | SELL | 0.998 | $998.00 |
| 01-21 06:37 | US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $535.71 |
| 01-19 16:57 | Nothing Ever Happens: January | BUY | 0.71 | $56.23 |
| 01-19 09:45 | Another US strike on Venezuela by March 31? | BUY | 0.87 | $495.90 |
| 01-18 08:26 | Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.9929394572 | $104.64 |
| 01-18 08:11 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.42 | $298.20 |
| 01-17 08:26 | Will the US next strike Iran on January 16, 2026 (ET)? | SELL | 0.998 | $199.60 |
| 01-17 08:26 | Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 16, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $199.80 |
| 01-17 08:25 | Internet access restored in Iran by Friday? | SELL | 0.998 | $199.68 |