arrrnay
0x0fa9ba2fd8585033b93367bd1032f74d3efa22eb
- Realised P&L
- $-118.58
- Volume
- $142.4k
- Markets traded
- 761
- Open portfolio
- $98.42
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded761
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Warsh say "Gas" or "Gasoline" or "Natural Gas" during September Press Conference? · No | 0.476 | 0.520 | $27.49 | +$2.32 |
| Will Warsh say "Projection" during September Press Conference? · No | 0.190 | 0.180 | $23.76 | −$1.32 |
| Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference? · No | 0.248 | 0.225 | $22.65 | −$2.35 |
| Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during September Press Conference? · No | 0.780 | 0.850 | $20.39 | +$1.68 |
| Will Warsh say "Pressure" during September Press Conference? · No | 0.320 | 0.455 | $3.11 | +$0.92 |
| Will Warsh say "Software" during September Press Conference? · No | 0.530 | 0.800 | $1.02 | +$0.34 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$267.97at 0.524US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$261.24at 0.164Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance
- +$259.95at 0.251Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference?
- +$221.78at 0.247Will Trump say "Stupid" during Iowa speech?
- +$217.24at 0.328US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 23:26 | Will Warsh say "Gas" or "Gasoline" or "Natural Gas" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.53 | $14.31 |
| 09-15 23:24 | Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during September Press Conference? | SELL | 0.57 | $28.50 |
| 09-15 23:21 | Will Warsh say "Pressure" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.19 |
| 09-15 23:20 | Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.25 | $21.00 |
| 09-15 23:19 | Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.24 | $4.00 |
| 09-15 23:18 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | SELL | 0.87 | $27.84 |
| 09-15 23:18 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | SELL | 0.89 | $29.37 |
| 09-15 23:17 | Will Warsh say "Projection" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.19 | $25.08 |
| 09-14 20:07 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18? | SELL | 0.971 | $27.19 |
| 09-11 23:48 | Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.58 | $6.96 |
| 09-11 23:16 | Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.78 | $18.71 |
| 09-11 13:10 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.22 | $9.68 |
| 09-11 13:10 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.17 | $81.77 |
| 09-09 18:16 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.34 | $15.76 |
| 09-08 17:17 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.44 | $22.51 |