ToroStonks
0x0ec7ba868e6152f3c25aff5c1aa9bee7d338a9ed
- Realised P&L
- $-349.84
- Volume
- $41.9k
- Markets traded
- 32
- Open portfolio
- $25.34
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded32
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? · Yes | 0.083 | 0.091 | $16.51 | +$1.51 |
| Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? · Yes | 0.046 | 0.041 | $8.83 | −$1.17 |
| Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? · No | 0.364 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women’s French Open? · Yes | 0.098 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$88.02at 0.511Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in January 2026?
- +$60.84at 0.247Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026
- +$47.00at 0.530Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026
- +$9.54at 0.759Will PEAK win Better With Friends at the 2025 Steam Awards?
- +$8.93at 0.733U.S. strike on Nigeria by January 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-28 21:12 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.08 | $37.31 |
| 01-28 15:20 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.003 | $20.00 |
| 01-28 15:19 | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.001 | $10.00 |
| 01-28 15:18 | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.002 | $20.00 |
| 01-28 15:18 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.91 | $67.31 |
| 01-28 12:37 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.004 | $2.65 |
| 01-22 13:17 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0189999991 | $20.00 |
| 01-22 13:17 | Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | SELL | 0.1630882776 | $22.65 |
| 01-18 08:32 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.8899999996 | $65.84 |
| 01-14 16:26 | U.S. strike on Nigeria by January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9507327797 | $38.92 |
| 01-11 13:12 | Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-11? | BUY | 0.4399999981 | $100.00 |
| 01-09 22:42 | US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4653465322 | $100.00 |
| 01-09 19:51 | Will the US strike Mexico next? | BUY | 0.82 | $16.40 |
| 01-09 19:50 | Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in January 2026? | SELL | 0.961 | $188.02 |
| 01-09 09:35 | Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026 | BUY | 0.2474022761 | $20.00 |