0x0e935A8486B7e044b6b4195af7ACd280163b6A82-1778525694471
0x0e935a8486b7e044b6b4195af7acd280163b6a82
- Realised P&L
- $368.29
- Volume
- $17.8k
- Markets traded
- 446
- Open portfolio
- $74.99
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded446
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)14.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "OpenAI" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 28? · No | 0.750 | 0.805 | $24.23 | +$1.66 |
| Will "SpaceX" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 28? · No | 0.780 | 0.735 | $23.45 | −$1.44 |
| Will "Blue" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 28? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.560 | $16.91 | +$1.51 |
| Will "Alien" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 28? · No | 0.290 | 0.260 | $10.40 | −$1.20 |
| Will "IPO" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? · No | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.77 |
| Will "Mark Zuckerberg" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? · No | 0.710 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.36 |
| Will "Blue" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 21? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.88 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$40.95at 0.415Will "Dude" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 1?
- +$40.70at 0.418Will "Texas" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 1?
- +$40.18at 0.380Will "Alien" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 6?
- +$39.60at 0.273Will "Data Center" be said 5+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
- +$37.74at 0.563Will "Japan" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 06:05 | Will "OpenAI" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 28? | BUY | 0.75 | $22.58 |
| 09-23 06:32 | Will "SpaceX" be said 3+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | BUY | 0.3 | $3.48 |
| 09-20 09:26 | Will "Red" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 21? | BUY | 0.6 | $11.10 |
| 09-20 09:26 | Will "Red" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 21? | BUY | 0.6 | $12.90 |
| 09-11 06:47 | Will MrBeast say "Contestant" during his next gaming YouTube video? | BUY | 0.21 | $3.25 |
| 09-11 06:47 | Will MrBeast say "Contestant" during his next gaming YouTube video? | BUY | 0.21 | $3.25 |
| 09-11 06:47 | Will MrBeast say "Contestant" during his next gaming YouTube video? | BUY | 0.21 | $3.25 |
| 09-11 06:46 | Will MrBeast say "Minecraft" during his next gaming YouTube video? | BUY | 0.1823611111 | $3.94 |
| 09-11 06:46 | Will MrBeast say "Minecraft" during his next gaming YouTube video? | BUY | 0.19 | $4.10 |
| 09-11 06:46 | Will MrBeast say "Minecraft" during his next gaming YouTube video? | BUY | 0.18 | $6.21 |
| 08-23 07:56 | Will "Red" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of August 24? | BUY | 0.64 | $12.80 |
| 08-21 10:24 | Will "Japan" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? | BUY | 0.6 | $17.28 |
| 08-20 16:08 | Will MrBeast say "Subscribe" or "Subscribed" during his next YouTube video? | BUY | 0.2 | $2.24 |
| 08-20 16:08 | Will MrBeast say "Subscribe" or "Subscribed" during his next YouTube video? | BUY | 0.2 | $3.10 |
| 08-20 16:08 | Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? | BUY | 0.1 | $0.77 |