0x0e86291312cC9c9d99e9bAEd1E300D8F6dfE8795-1781704076424
0x0e86291312cc9c9d99e9baed1e300d8f6dfe8795
- Realised P&L
- $123.64
- Volume
- $4.7k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $15.44
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration64.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration93.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit? · Yes | 0.415 | 0.200 | $14.45 | −$15.55 |
| Will the Trump and Xi handshake last less than 2 seconds during their summit? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.001 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Trump and Xi not shake hands during their summit? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET · Up | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? · No | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 28, 2026? · No | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? · No | 0.192 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 13, 2026? · No | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.14 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 29, 2026? · No | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.27 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 27, 2026? · No | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$95.01at 0.712Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$27.92at 0.227Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 15?
- +$10.02at 0.720Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
- +$7.29at 0.978Will Russia target Kyiv on September 23, 2026?
- +$4.85at 0.520US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 23:31 | Will Trump and Xi not shake hands during their summit? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 23:30 | Will the Trump and Xi handshake last less than 2 seconds during their summit? | BUY | 0.0010145641 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 23:25 | Will Russia target Kyiv on September 24, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $70.18 |
| 09-23 23:01 | Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit? | BUY | 0.3798898183 | $10.00 |
| 09-23 23:01 | Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit? | BUY | 0.3749999953 | $10.00 |
| 09-23 22:55 | Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during their summit? | SELL | 0.3 | $0.91 |
| 09-23 22:18 | Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit? | BUY | 0.5189999929 | $10.00 |
| 09-23 22:02 | Will Russia target Kyiv on September 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $20.00 |
| 09-23 22:01 | Will Russia target Kyiv on September 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.9953807931 | $50.00 |
| 09-22 23:23 | Will Russia target Kyiv on September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.9782784799 | $328.40 |
| 09-22 23:22 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.77 | $327.47 |
| 09-22 18:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET | BUY | 0.2899999884 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 11:04 | Will Russia target Kyiv on September 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.971 | $1.98 |
| 09-21 22:30 | Will Russia target Kyiv on September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.9699999951 | $1.98 |
| 09-21 22:13 | Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during their summit? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |