0x0E6615097c1622321d2e0f4ABa7B8B819d226b36-1773918298475
0x0e6615097c1622321d2e0f4aba7b8b819d226b36
- Realised P&L
- $-690.38
- Volume
- $5.7k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $40.62
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-12.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia target Kyiv on September 16, 2026? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.820 | $40.62 | −$2.97 |
| Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$27.85 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.850 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$250.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$77.16at 0.639Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
- +$40.05at 0.635Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?
- +$19.47at 0.845Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?
- +$10.02at 0.770Will Russia target Kyiv on September 15, 2026?
- +$4.93at 0.836Will Russia target Kyiv on September 14, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 06:58 | Will Russia target Kyiv on September 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.8799999984 | $43.59 |
| 09-14 14:53 | Will Russia target Kyiv on September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7699999995 | $33.55 |
| 09-14 14:52 | Will Russia target Kyiv on September 14, 2026? | SELL | 0.98 | $33.57 |
| 09-13 10:07 | Will Russia target Kyiv on September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.8360425928 | $28.65 |
| 09-13 10:06 | Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by September 30? | SELL | 0.915 | $28.66 |
| 09-07 10:30 | Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by September 30? | BUY | 0.8649999997 | $27.10 |
| 09-07 10:27 | Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.0196239981 | $22.55 |
| 09-05 13:36 | Will Russia target Kyiv on September 5, 2026? | SELL | 0.29 | $4.06 |
| 09-04 17:25 | Will Russia target Kyiv on September 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.63 | $8.82 |
| 08-29 08:54 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $8.37 |
| 07-08 10:35 | Will Russia capture Prymorske by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.0684920635 | $8.63 |
| 06-28 09:41 | Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4185843317 | $481.00 |
| 06-28 09:40 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.7608086049 | $480.98 |
| 06-19 07:46 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6408952107 | $393.00 |
| 06-19 07:46 | Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? | SELL | 0.9251627703 | $115.95 |