M8PG0B
0x0e5f577c75f0837b706ecb87bdf7a60e8954140d
- Realised P&L
- $380.90
- Volume
- $19.6k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $2.4k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration55.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.961 | $1.5k | +$336.80 |
| Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? · No | 0.839 | 0.973 | $695.48 | +$95.48 |
| Will GitLab be acquired before 2027? · No | 0.854 | 0.922 | $216.14 | +$16.14 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$211.75at 0.891Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
- +$81.32at 0.940Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
- +$29.25at 0.823Will BP be acquired before 2027?
- +$29.05at 0.981Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
- +$26.85at 0.984Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-02 15:18 | Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.2k |
| 05-02 15:06 | Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? | BUY | 0.838986961 | $600.00 |
| 05-02 14:14 | Will GitLab be acquired before 2027? | BUY | 0.8536307756 | $200.00 |
| 05-02 10:14 | Will BP be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.8069881517 | $413.43 |
| 05-02 09:52 | Will BP be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.89 | $578.50 |
| 05-02 09:37 | Will BP be acquired before 2027? | BUY | 0.8173360235 | $950.00 |
| 05-02 09:18 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.995 | $2.0k |
| 01-30 14:48 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8906049305 | $1.8k |
| 01-30 14:42 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.985 | $1.8k |
| 12-12 02:46 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.9835436349 | $1.8k |
| 12-12 02:45 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.9841858163 | $1.8k |
| 12-11 04:53 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.9399999999 | $1.7k |
| 10-30 11:49 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.9844543285 | $1.7k |
| 10-15 12:47 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.981 | $1.5k |