0x0e4b5da85311b3fe38cf5fa13be39e8059b7cc34
0x0e4b5da85311b3fe38cf5fa13be39e8059b7cc34
- Realised P&L
- $94.01
- Volume
- $2.9k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $1.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration44.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump insults Anthropic CEO this week? · No | 0.880 | 0.975 | $253.37 | +$24.57 |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 30? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.998 | $249.50 | +$22.00 |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 9? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.945 | $240.85 | +$24.10 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15? · No | 0.850 | 0.935 | $221.70 | +$20.16 |
| Will Trump name an AI czar by October 2, 2026? · No | 0.862 | 0.660 | $191.44 | −$58.56 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? · No | 0.630 | 0.640 | $152.38 | +$2.38 |
| Lula participates in debate before first round? · No | 0.977 | 0.987 | $121.06 | +$1.23 |
| Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.954 | 0.980 | $103.50 | +$2.75 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$42.22at 0.848Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
- +$20.80at 0.921Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
- +$10.13at 0.956US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
- +$8.60at 0.937Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?
- +$7.09at 0.937US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 03:01 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.8619000975 | $250.00 |
| 10-01 02:49 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? | BUY | 0.6299999987 | $150.00 |
| 09-30 03:00 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.9699999999 | $76.57 |
| 09-30 02:05 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15? | BUY | 0.8499999996 | $201.55 |
| 09-30 01:57 | Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9540021135 | $100.75 |
| 09-29 02:22 | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 9? | BUY | 0.85 | $216.75 |
| 09-29 02:22 | Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9675346004 | $160.00 |
| 09-29 01:35 | Trump insults Anthropic CEO this week? | BUY | 0.88 | $228.80 |
| 09-27 02:10 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.8599999988 | $29.03 |
| 09-26 14:29 | Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30? | BUY | 0.937 | $127.95 |
| 09-26 14:28 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $94.00 |
| 09-26 14:11 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8753108346 | $140.00 |
| 09-26 02:52 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9101701614 | $150.00 |
| 09-26 02:49 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | BUY | 0.9559999999 | $220.00 |
| 09-26 02:24 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $63.18 |