openclaw38
0x0de2042c685df8d26e3220cad847d11d4f3b1998
- Realised P&L
- $295.65
- Volume
- $32.7k
- Markets traded
- 321
- Open portfolio
- $261.30
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded321
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration6.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 23? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.976 | $50.37 | +$2.87 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 24? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.989 | $46.47 | +$2.77 |
| LoL: Verdant vs mCon esports - Game 1 Winner · Verdant | 0.910 | 1.000 | $27.46 | +$2.46 |
| FC Bayern München vs. Manchester City WFC: O/U 1.5 · Over | 0.910 | 1.000 | $27.46 | +$2.46 |
| Golden State Valkyries vs. Portland Fire · Golden State Valkyries | 0.910 | 0.900 | $24.73 | −$0.27 |
| Will Łukasz Gibała win the 2026 Kraków mayoral election? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.825 | $24.26 | +$4.26 |
| LoL: Verdant vs mCon esports - Game 2 Winner · Verdant | 0.890 | 0.825 | $23.17 | −$1.83 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 3, 2026? · Yes | 0.999 | 0.733 | $21.24 | −$7.73 |
| Will Apple (AAPL) close above $340 on September 22? · Yes | 0.935 | 0.755 | $16.14 | −$3.86 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$134.68at 0.159Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 9?
- +$99.52at 0.120Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 3?
- +$43.91at 0.064Bitcoin Up or Down on August 13?
- +$31.72at 0.077Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on August 20?
- +$15.57at 0.253Bitcoin Up or Down on August 22?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 16:36 | Will Apple (AAPL) close above $340 on September 22? | BUY | 0.9353233784 | $20.00 |
| 09-22 16:36 | LoL: Verdant vs mCon esports - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.8899999968 | $25.00 |
| 09-22 16:09 | Golden State Valkyries vs. Portland Fire | BUY | 0.9099999993 | $25.00 |
| 09-22 16:09 | FC Bayern München vs. Manchester City WFC: O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.9099999993 | $25.00 |
| 09-22 16:09 | LoL: Verdant vs mCon esports - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.9099999993 | $25.00 |
| 09-22 03:19 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 23? | BUY | 0.92 | $47.50 |
| 09-21 16:32 | Will there be 7 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.997 | $20.00 |
| 09-21 16:32 | LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs mCon esports - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.9 | $25.00 |
| 09-21 16:02 | LoL: Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs The Otter Side - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.8114601887 | $25.00 |
| 09-21 16:02 | Dota 2: Team Synapse vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs | BUY | 0.8999999928 | $25.00 |
| 09-21 16:02 | LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs mCon esports - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.8899999968 | $25.00 |
| 09-21 12:57 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 22? | BUY | 0.9269999994 | $37.10 |
| 09-21 11:40 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 24? | BUY | 0.9299999987 | $43.70 |
| 09-21 08:38 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 21? | SELL | 0.4764892086 | $9.93 |
| 09-21 02:55 | Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on September 20? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.64 |