0x0dcb5c44d26e9ad97e11ead679f647b241bda7b4
- Realised P&L
- $15.0k
- Volume
- $232.6k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $75.61
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration70.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.135 | 0.029 | $75.61 | −$269.68 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$53.8kat 0.021MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
- +$12.5kat 0.437Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?
- +$5.9kat 0.424Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?
- +$2.3kat 0.366Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?
- +$1.6kat 0.600Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-14 21:41 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.5822155943 | $278.60 |
| 05-14 21:40 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? | SELL | 0.0871561155 | $147.06 |
| 05-14 21:39 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? | SELL | 0.0909719498 | $153.50 |
| 05-14 21:39 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.106024972 | $357.80 |
| 05-14 21:38 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? | SELL | 0.0177320667 | $85.24 |
| 05-14 15:34 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.2064548093 | $992.51 |
| 05-14 14:48 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.331761808 | $1.4k |
| 05-13 06:51 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.3389999843 | $8.68 |
| 05-13 06:51 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.3284907735 | $58.24 |
| 05-13 06:51 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.3189253993 | $232.97 |
| 05-13 06:51 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.320775891 | $1.0k |
| 05-13 06:50 | Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.0960470307 | $246.19 |
| 05-13 06:50 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.4028780641 | $1.1k |
| 05-12 21:52 | Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.1372024813 | $117.23 |
| 05-12 21:12 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.3462023151 | $923.23 |