PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

UmbuzeirodoSertao

0x0da262dae0af2ba1498dceb915eb032246dbef4a

Realised P&L
$-490.42
Volume
$19.4k
Markets traded
82
Open portfolio
$75.06

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded82
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration32.3% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration36.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0610.009$27.31$149.26
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting? · Yes0.3540.330$23.43$1.72
Will Raquel Lyra win the Pernambuco Governor election? · Yes0.3700.595$11.90+$4.50
Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? · No0.0680.174$4.52+$2.76
Will Colonel Busnello win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? · Yes0.0020.001$3.00$3.00
Will Benoni Mendes win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? · Yes0.0140.003$2.00$9.49
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0020.001$1.25$3.75
Will Marcelo Brigadeiro win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? · Yes0.0550.018$0.72$1.47
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0170.001$0.38$12.62
Will André Luís win the Governor of Maranhão election? · Yes0.0070.001$0.19$2.53
Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0890.002$0.16$9.51
Will Luiz França win the Governor of Paraná election? · Yes0.0140.001$0.11$2.83
Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0290.001$0.09$4.91
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET · Up0.3200.000$0.00$2.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET · Up0.2500.000$0.00$2.17

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-16 18:56Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ETBUY0.6899999821$5.00
09-16 18:52Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ETSELL0.96$7.06
09-16 18:52Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ETBUY0.6799999728$5.00
09-16 18:46Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ETBUY0.75$5.00
09-10 12:09Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?BUY0.78$6.24
09-08 17:44Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?BUY0.68$6.80
09-08 17:37Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?BUY0.36$10.80
09-08 17:37Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?BUY0.35$14.35
08-31 22:05Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.017$9.89
08-22 17:49Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.031$3.10
08-22 17:48Will André Luís win the Governor of Maranhão election?BUY0.004547619$0.31
08-22 12:09Will André Luís win the Governor of Maranhão election?BUY0.007582321$0.59
08-21 21:22Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%?BUY0.583$11.66
08-17 21:30Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.008$5.92
08-17 14:36Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.047$4.70