PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

UmbuzeirodoSertao

0x0da262dae0af2ba1498dceb915eb032246dbef4a

Realised P&L
$-172.64
Volume
$13.2k
Markets traded
72
Open portfolio
$248.75

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded72
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration34.7% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration30.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Colonel Busnello win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? · Yes0.0020.025$75.00+$69.00
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.1130.072$61.64$34.37
Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.6% and 0.8%? · Yes0.3310.285$30.84$4.96
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes0.6070.425$27.66$11.84
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting? · Yes0.0920.008$19.94$208.77
Will Raquel Lyra win the Pernambuco Governor election? · Yes0.3700.675$13.50+$6.10
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? · Yes0.3900.415$4.15+$0.25
Will Benoni Mendes win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? · Yes0.0280.017$3.57$2.32
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? · No0.1380.006$2.74$55.25
Will Marcelo Brigadeiro win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? · Yes0.0550.046$1.84$0.35
Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0290.010$1.75$3.25
Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0890.015$1.69$7.99
Will Luiz França win the Governor of Paraná election? · Yes0.0120.013$1.44+$0.11
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0020.001$1.25$3.75
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0170.002$1.15$11.85

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-03 14:26Will Marcelo Brigadeiro win the Governor of Santa Catarina election?BUY0.0548375$2.19
08-03 13:26Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.076$5.32
08-03 12:16Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?BUY0.024$2.40
08-03 12:14Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?BUY0.024$4.80
08-03 11:27Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?BUY0.025$2.25
08-03 11:26Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?BUY0.024958159$5.97
08-03 11:12Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?BUY0.019$3.90
08-03 11:11Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?BUY0.0178582495$6.55
08-01 11:59Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.6% and 0.8%?BUY0.29$5.80
07-30 20:42Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.002$5.00
07-30 20:23Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.085$4.25
07-30 01:55Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.089$1.78
07-30 01:54Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?BUY0.076$2.28
07-30 01:30Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?BUY0.077$4.62
07-27 22:28Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.735$5.88