ellisluis
0x0d159b5d88a325016372d05fb6ceeeb93b4af862
- Realised P&L
- $102.33
- Volume
- $11.4k
- Markets traded
- 80
- Open portfolio
- $57.36
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded80
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration91.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quebec General Election: PQ Wins a Majority? · No | 0.770 | 0.810 | $32.25 | +$1.59 |
| Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.947 | $25.11 | +$4.68 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$96.17at 0.270Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?
- +$27.57at 0.570Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
- +$6.56at 0.750Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on September 8?
- +$0.53at 0.960Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?
- +$0.28at 0.989Will US gov sell Bitcoin before March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 14:00 | Will Solana dip to $90 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $21.68 |
| 01-30 16:08 | Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.998 | $12.76 |
| 01-30 14:34 | Will BNB dip to $700 in January? | BUY | 0.9969999559 | $18.41 |
| 01-30 12:22 | Will Chainlink hit $17 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $35.16 |
| 12-30 13:33 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.9979999668 | $14.60 |
| 12-30 01:40 | Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.76 |
| 12-30 00:58 | Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $9.83 |
| 12-29 23:21 | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $12.68 |
| 12-29 19:15 | Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $43.20 |
| 10-30 21:54 | Will Moonshot have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $24.77 |
| 10-30 20:07 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $25.38 |
| 09-29 12:18 | Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? | BUY | 0.9989999798 | $14.69 |
| 09-28 23:33 | Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.997 | $18.68 |
| 09-28 22:54 | Will XRP dip to $1.80 in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.79 |
| 09-28 22:28 | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.84 |