0x0CCa834588028c2C092C70d0467E242F86fe700f-1777052806747
0x0cca834588028c2c092c70d0467e242f86fe700f
- Realised P&L
- $223.13
- Volume
- $14.6k
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $611.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample43 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? · No | 0.794 | 0.905 | $198.19 | +$24.26 |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.880 | 0.967 | $108.24 | +$9.69 |
| Will Republicans win the Texas, Michigan, and Maine Senate seats? · No | 0.814 | 0.870 | $107.01 | +$6.89 |
| Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? · No | 0.800 | 0.775 | $106.95 | −$3.45 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026? · No | 0.900 | 0.940 | $68.58 | +$2.88 |
| Will the Republicans win the South Carolina governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.956 | $21.50 | +$0.58 |
| Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award? · Yes | 0.259 | 0.004 | $0.60 | −$38.25 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$304.00at 0.160Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
- +$102.54at 0.482Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?
- +$99.99at 0.189Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$81.41at 0.692Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?
- +$46.03at 0.632Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 12:22 | Will Seattle have between 1.75 and 2.5 inches of precipitation in October? | BUY | 0.82 | $32.80 |
| 10-26 06:42 | Will Republicans win the Texas, Michigan, and Maine Senate seats? | BUY | 0.814 | $100.12 |
| 10-08 11:12 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 10? | BUY | 0.045 | $0.06 |
| 10-07 22:39 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Hubert Hurkacz vs James Duckworth | BUY | 0.33 | $59.40 |
| 09-12 17:30 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? | BUY | 0.16 | $64.00 |
| 09-10 17:29 | Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | SELL | 0.62 | $24.80 |
| 09-09 11:12 | Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | BUY | 0.544686 | $27.23 |
| 08-29 22:37 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on August 31? | BUY | 0.0835625 | $40.11 |
| 08-19 14:22 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | SELL | 0.83 | $58.10 |
| 08-18 11:12 | Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award? | BUY | 0.259 | $38.85 |
| 08-16 08:45 | Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.66 | $82.50 |
| 08-16 08:43 | Will Russia capture Bilytske by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1006728889 | $45.30 |
| 08-16 07:34 | Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.1592515953 | $34.94 |
| 08-16 07:31 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.852 | $98.07 |
| 08-12 11:05 | UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? | BUY | 0.78 | $12.78 |