Sorrymissjackson
0x0cbf16aa2e92760d8cb708b877a95a25f2c84665
- Realised P&L
- $23.3k
- Volume
- $1.26M
- Markets traded
- 174
- Open portfolio
- $9.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded174
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration84.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · Yes | 0.836 | 0.845 | $8.2k | +$89.47 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.892 | 0.875 | $1.4k | −$26.71 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.268 | 0.295 | $44.09 | +$4.09 |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 30? · No | 0.169 | 0.170 | $42.27 | +$0.27 |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 9? · No | 0.230 | 0.310 | $40.04 | +$10.33 |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? · No | 0.331 | 0.415 | $6.26 | +$1.26 |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.00 |
| Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.109 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.1k |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? · Yes | 0.399 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$487.59 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.198 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$47.1kat 0.396Another Israel military action on Yemen by Friday?
- +$5.8kat 0.713Another Israel strike on Yemen by July 31?
- +$5.3kat 0.780Another Israel strike on Yemen by Friday?
- +$2.9kat 0.356US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
- +$2.2kat 0.473Israel military action on Yemen before June?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 14:37 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $541.00 |
| 09-25 14:37 | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.3312883346 | $5.00 |
| 09-25 14:36 | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.1868094688 | $7.00 |
| 09-25 14:36 | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.1657381612 | $35.00 |
| 09-25 14:35 | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 9? | BUY | 0.23 | $28.55 |
| 09-25 14:34 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.84 | $617.19 |
| 09-22 19:16 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $851.00 |
| 09-22 19:15 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | SELL | 0.955708772 | $848.83 |
| 09-20 13:03 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.8299999999 | $850.00 |
| 09-20 09:11 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.82 | $3.0k |
| 09-20 09:11 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.9299999999 | $826.00 |
| 09-19 16:48 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.85 | $1.7k |
| 08-23 15:32 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.2676148784 | $40.00 |
| 08-23 15:32 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.221 | $41.49 |
| 08-16 08:07 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.2010000011 | $37.74 |