0x0cb25edac705df4c6B4d23FB6Fc4E18E78301872-1774209617236
0x0cb25edac705df4c6b4d23fb6fc4e18e78301872
- Realised P&L
- $1.2k
- Volume
- $203.3k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $1.7k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? · Yes | 0.820 | 0.915 | $1.1k | +$109.63 |
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.027 | 0.026 | $260.39 | −$7.71 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.365 | $219.00 | +$51.00 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30? · No | 0.744 | 0.755 | $151.00 | +$2.24 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.330 | $66.00 | +$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.1kat 0.181Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- +$1.4kat 0.731Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
- +$860.98at 0.192Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
- +$69.02at 0.188MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
- +$59.99at 0.256MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 04:57 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? | BUY | 0.8192241029 | $403.65 |
| 10-27 15:21 | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.25 | $1.5k |
| 10-27 10:07 | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.3 | $1.8k |
| 10-27 10:02 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.66 | $329.99 |
| 10-27 10:01 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.92 | $391.00 |
| 10-25 05:32 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.67 | $334.99 |
| 10-25 05:00 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.28 | $168.00 |
| 10-25 04:15 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.82 | $348.50 |
| 10-20 18:04 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30? | BUY | 0.743779 | $148.76 |
| 10-20 18:03 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31? | BUY | 0.33 | $66.00 |
| 10-20 17:58 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.8176470588 | $695.00 |
| 10-18 02:18 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.028 | $500.00 |
| 10-17 10:17 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.2815142084 | $1.5k |
| 10-16 19:41 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0246112001 | $250.00 |
| 10-16 16:52 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.3633816204 | $628.12 |