SIggytheWolf
0x0c811f025f20c45da21b60b127d255cecfad1f31
- Realised P&L
- $-697.33
- Volume
- $49.8k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $344.32
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration21.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · Yes | 0.039 | 0.018 | $263.27 | −$291.72 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.038 | $81.05 | −$318.95 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? · Yes | 0.427 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$600.00 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? · Yes | 0.336 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$450.00 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 15? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 8? · Yes | 0.188 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$998.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$724.89at 0.355Nothing Ever Happens: February
- +$701.17at 0.477Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in January?
- +$613.63at 0.220US government shutdown Saturday?
- +$603.48at 0.620US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$305.87at 0.590Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-06 05:14 | Iran closes its airspace by May 15? | BUY | 0.16 | $100.00 |
| 05-06 05:14 | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY | 0.07 | $70.00 |
| 05-05 09:43 | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY | 0.1907731152 | $400.00 |
| 05-04 10:51 | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY | 0.189999999 | $150.00 |
| 05-04 10:50 | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY | 0.4270875764 | $600.00 |
| 05-04 10:50 | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY | 0.1899999986 | $100.00 |
| 05-04 10:49 | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY | 0.1899999986 | $100.00 |
| 05-04 10:48 | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY | 0.1899999981 | $70.00 |
| 04-07 08:23 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.996 | $1.6k |
| 04-02 10:07 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.6199999999 | $995.09 |
| 03-11 02:42 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.32 | $100.00 |
| 03-11 02:41 | US forces enter Iran by March 14? | SELL | 0.0907597191 | $95.54 |
| 03-07 19:08 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.0389999999 | $555.00 |
| 03-06 07:53 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.3415042519 | $350.00 |
| 03-06 07:53 | US forces enter Iran by March 14? | BUY | 0.1899999994 | $200.00 |