PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Mr-Fairmont

0x0c4434a12941dcd80ecc300ac91decc7557d7061

Realised P&L
$-0.66
Volume
$279.88
Markets traded
20
Open portfolio
$17.23

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded20
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration36.2% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample8 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)62.5%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration34.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House · Yes0.3500.415$5.93+$0.93
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? · Yes0.1100.210$3.82+$1.82
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? · Yes0.2600.210$2.42$0.58
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027? · Yes0.1700.125$2.21$0.79
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? · Yes0.3300.105$0.95$2.05
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2700.120$0.89$1.11
Will Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 American League Championship Series? · Yes0.1000.014$0.70$4.30
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? · Yes0.1400.022$0.31$1.69
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.3000.000$0.00$2.00
Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw? · Yes0.0800.000$0.00$1.00
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02? · Yes0.1900.000$0.00$2.00
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? · Yes0.1200.000$0.00$1.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-01 17:54Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?BUY0.08$1.00
07-01 17:54Will England win on 2026-07-01?SELL0.92$2.42
07-01 17:45Will England win on 2026-07-01?BUY0.3799999012$1.00
07-01 17:44Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?SELL0.55$1.72
07-01 17:09Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?BUY0.32$1.00
07-01 03:02Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02?BUY0.1899999373$2.00
07-01 03:00Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.299999925$2.00
06-28 19:02Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?BUY0.5199999861$3.00
06-17 02:22Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?BUY0.1199998992$1.00
04-18 23:32Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?BUY0.3299999296$3.00
04-18 23:16Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?BUY0.1099999521$2.00
04-17 13:41Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?BUY0.2929999207$2.00
04-16 22:062026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseBUY0.3499999615$5.00
04-15 03:19U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?BUY0.1699999609$3.00
04-15 03:18U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?BUY0.259999948$3.00