ashiknagi
0x0c30a6644b7f16b24204c6fdb0a6a4b71a2264b7
- Realised P&L
- $-264.14
- Volume
- $8.0k
- Markets traded
- 143
- Open portfolio
- $2.59
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded143
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Michal Uherčík win the 2026 Martin mayoral election? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.450 | $1.28 | −$0.17 |
| Will Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election? · Yes | 0.615 | 0.650 | $1.12 | +$0.06 |
| Will Héctor Santana García win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election? · Yes | 0.477 | 0.054 | $0.17 | −$1.33 |
| Will Edwin Gonzalo Vásquez Sánchez win the next Chiclayo mayoral elections? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.006 | $0.02 | −$1.00 |
| Will Styvenson Valentim win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election? · No | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.93 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.96at 0.060Will Joe_Bartolozzi & SypherPK Win the Jynxzi Fortnite Tournament?
- +$11.40at 0.220Will Bekim Sejdiu be the next President of Kosovo?
- +$10.95at 0.320Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 9, 2026?
- +$10.53at 0.223Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 7, 2026?
- +$9.80at 0.150Will United Russia (ER) win 55-60% of the party-list vote in the 2026 Russian State Duma election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 18:37 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 2? | SELL | 0.17 | $0.94 |
| 10-01 18:37 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 2? | SELL | 0.1978133662 | $6.42 |
| 10-01 18:37 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 2? | SELL | 0.23 | $1.15 |
| 10-01 18:37 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 2? | SELL | 0.2706038647 | $22.41 |
| 10-01 16:45 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 2? | SELL | 0.14 | $13.99 |
| 09-21 12:16 | Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.28 | $2.24 |
| 09-21 12:16 | Will Deadlock win Best Multiplayer at the 2026 Game Awards? | SELL | 0.139 | $2.78 |
| 09-21 12:16 | Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in September? | SELL | 0.23 | $5.29 |
| 09-21 12:16 | Will the peak wind gust in Wellington be 90 to 101 km/h in September? | SELL | 0.24 | $5.52 |
| 09-21 11:57 | Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.178 | $2.04 |
| 09-21 11:56 | Will no Atlantic hurricane form in September 2026? | SELL | 0.14 | $3.25 |
| 09-21 11:56 | Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $3.64 |
| 09-21 11:56 | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 9? | SELL | 0.2 | $5.60 |
| 09-21 11:56 | Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in September? | SELL | 0.24 | $1.20 |
| 09-21 11:56 | Will the peak wind gust in Wellington be 90 to 101 km/h in September? | SELL | 0.26 | $1.30 |