PolyBot

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Traders

0x0c158b14900Aa6aDc02b863aCFb70108377F4268-1773648220647

0x0c158b14900aa6adc02b863acfb70108377f4268

Realised P&L
$-2.1k
Volume
$7.6k
Markets traded
18
Open portfolio
$399.69

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-27.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded18
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration65.7% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample4 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration63.1% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? · No0.6940.875$252.06+$52.06
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? · No0.7900.825$52.22+$2.22
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026? · No0.8600.830$48.26$1.74
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? · Yes0.1240.043$24.54$45.46
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? · No0.6951.000$22.62+$6.89
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? · No0.3000.000$0.00$50.00
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? · No0.3800.000$0.00$837.32
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? · No0.3950.000$0.00$150.00
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? · No0.4500.000$0.00$50.00
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? · No0.4430.000$0.00$150.00
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? · No0.8200.000$0.00$200.00
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? · No0.3640.000$0.00$295.81
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? · No0.5580.000$0.00$150.00
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? · No0.2670.000$0.00$150.00
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? · No0.5500.000$0.00$50.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
04-11 18:31Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?BUY0.2849999955$37.32
04-10 23:18Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?BUY0.3882089009$600.00
04-10 21:24Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? BUY0.1356352522$20.00
04-10 21:06US military draft authorized in 2026?SELL0.12$66.67
04-10 21:05Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?BUY0.3296135172$245.81
04-10 21:04Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?BUY0.3796144255$200.00
04-05 17:58U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?BUY0.6942882564$200.00
04-05 17:50AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?BUY0.8199999993$200.00
04-05 17:35Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?BUY0.8599999986$50.00
04-05 17:28OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?BUY0.7899999997$50.00
04-05 17:20Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?BUY0.8799999965$19.81
04-04 21:27Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting IlliniBUY0.5499999956$24.33
03-25 02:07US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?BUY0.2299999968$50.00
03-25 02:06US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?BUY0.3399999967$50.00
03-25 02:06US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?BUY0.3599999977$50.00