0x0b886a8a9a8f3d121dfb735c905b4c20daf163df
- Realised P&L
- $22.77
- Volume
- $1.3k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $138.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 5? · Yes | 0.319 | 0.520 | $35.32 | +$13.66 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.825 | $23.58 | +$3.29 |
| Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 6? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.360 | $23.32 | +$0.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 6? · Yes | 0.405 | 0.430 | $22.37 | +$1.29 |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 6? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.535 | $12.32 | +$2.42 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.152 | 0.105 | $11.33 | −$5.03 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 6? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.395 | $3.95 | +$0.25 |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.236 | 0.035 | $3.45 | −$19.84 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$29.34at 0.369Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 4?
- +$22.99at 0.423Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 4?
- +$17.48at 0.224Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on August 4?
- +$2.63at 0.361Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C on August 5?
- +$0.82at 0.410Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on August 5?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 15:28 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.71 | $11.10 |
| 08-05 15:28 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.18 | $2.16 |
| 08-05 15:26 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.58 | $4.93 |
| 08-05 15:10 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.81 | $1.08 |
| 08-05 14:47 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.04 | $0.71 |
| 08-05 14:40 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.1 | $1.86 |
| 08-05 14:39 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.85 |
| 08-05 14:39 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.06 | $0.38 |
| 08-05 14:39 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.6033979686 | $6.53 |
| 08-05 14:38 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.4090742857 | $7.16 |
| 08-05 14:37 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.46 | $7.65 |
| 08-05 14:35 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 6? | BUY | 0.43 | $8.56 |
| 08-05 14:20 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.14 | $0.61 |
| 08-05 14:20 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.1 | $0.66 |
| 08-05 14:07 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.26 | $1.33 |