0x0B5DE83E29D18Bd280838B0425CdCD26257dF539-1762525346885
0x0b5de83e29d18bd280838b0425cdcd26257df539
- Realised P&L
- $-175.53
- Volume
- $3.3k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $12.04
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)91.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.880 | $5.71 | +$0.71 |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? · Yes | 0.820 | 0.998 | $3.65 | +$0.65 |
| Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the next Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.820 | $2.67 | −$0.33 |
| LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) · KT Rolster | 0.378 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$124.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on December 2? · Down | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 25? · No | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.30 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on November 21? · Up | 0.167 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$43.00 |
| Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on January 13? · Down | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.67at 0.929Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 18?
- +$0.40at 0.995Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 15?
- +$0.27at 0.993Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 25?
- +$0.14at 0.994Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
- +$0.10at 0.995Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 03:58 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8199999071 | $3.00 |
| 10-30 03:58 | Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the next Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election? | BUY | 0.9199999877 | $3.00 |
| 10-01 03:05 | Will the Republicans win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7699999877 | $5.00 |
| 03-22 13:58 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | BUY | 0.9909997225 | $1.00 |
| 03-22 13:58 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.995 | $10.00 |
| 03-02 14:13 | Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? | BUY | 0.719999856 | $1.00 |
| 03-01 07:43 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.995 | $5.00 |
| 02-15 12:07 | Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? | SELL | 0.9926179104 | $9.98 |
| 02-15 11:29 | Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? | BUY | 0.995 | $10.00 |
| 01-25 12:25 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 25? | BUY | 0.004 | $2.30 |
| 01-14 13:50 | LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) | BUY | 0.95 | $1.00 |
| 01-13 13:08 | Bitcoin Up or Down on January 13? | BUY | 0.52 | $1.00 |
| 12-19 13:43 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | BUY | 0.9929999448 | $10.00 |
| 12-18 10:18 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 18? | BUY | 0.998 | $5.00 |
| 12-05 15:11 | Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | SELL | 0.998 | $34.23 |