0x0b1fc266674d0d962831e807ecb9c328210d881f
0x0b1fc266674d0d962831e807ecb9c328210d881f
- Realised P&L
- $0.15
- Volume
- $9.13
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $14.97
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration39.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MO-05 House election by 3% or more? · Yes | 0.958 | 0.958 | $5.00 | −$0.00 |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-02 House election by 55%-60%? · No | 0.900 | 0.898 | $4.99 | −$0.01 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.993 | 0.990 | $4.98 | −$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.17at 0.924Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-10-30?
- +$0.15at 0.930Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
- +$0.07at 0.987Exact Score: Chelsea FC 0 - 3 Manchester United FC?
- +$0.04at 0.993Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?
- +$-0.42at 0.840Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 16:52 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MO-05 House election by 3% or more? | BUY | 0.9579999962 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 16:52 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-02 House election by 55%-60%? | BUY | 0.9 | $5.00 |
| 10-31 06:02 | Exact Score: Chelsea FC 0 - 3 Manchester United FC? | BUY | 0.9859999984 | $5.00 |
| 10-31 06:02 | Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9929999988 | $5.00 |
| 10-30 21:01 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? | SELL | 0.752 | $3.60 |
| 10-30 20:54 | France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9929999988 | $5.00 |
| 10-30 14:47 | Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-10-30? | BUY | 0.92 | $2.01 |
| 10-30 14:47 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? | BUY | 0.839999975 | $4.03 |
| 10-27 11:08 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.9299998419 | $2.00 |