gorillanemesis
0x0aec5e22629667acc2eeab471032f682f499fdaf
- Realised P&L
- $1.2k
- Volume
- $196.5k
- Markets traded
- 199
- Open portfolio
- $354.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded199
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration89.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.640 | 0.920 | $318.32 | +$96.88 |
| Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.075 | $34.50 | −$80.50 |
| Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.041 | $1.35 | −$2.94 |
| Mistral AI IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.020 | $0.02 | −$0.11 |
| Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.039 | 0.002 | $0.00 | −$0.04 |
| Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison? · Yes | 0.133 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.13 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$582.40at 0.130Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in February?
- +$556.89at 0.430Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 5 be greater than 2,300,000?
- +$515.08at 0.570Will Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal?
- +$413.17at 0.210Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5
- +$393.48at 0.410Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-15 14:38 | New pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.89 | $112.14 |
| 04-21 08:14 | Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026? | SELL | 0.71 | $460.08 |
| 04-21 03:41 | Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? | SELL | 0.22 | $190.08 |
| 04-13 16:46 | Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in April 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $4.50 |
| 04-13 16:11 | Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? | SELL | 0.19 | $1.33 |
| 04-13 15:44 | Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026? | SELL | 0.79 | $267.02 |
| 04-13 09:29 | Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? | SELL | 0.19 | $1.33 |
| 04-13 04:12 | Canada recession before 2027? | SELL | 0.6 | $484.20 |
| 04-12 23:10 | Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $818.38 |
| 04-12 22:02 | Will Ricardo Belmont finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL | 0.285 | $89.49 |
| 04-12 22:01 | Will Ricardo Belmont finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL | 0.285 | $90.91 |
| 04-12 22:00 | Will Ricardo Belmont finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL | 0.285 | $92.34 |
| 04-12 21:21 | Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $554.26 |
| 04-12 20:28 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.87 | $774.30 |
| 04-12 19:12 | Will Ricardo Belmont finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.851 | $814.41 |