0x0a829485Bb137d0AC4B769aF1De71ac45bF8cB97-1773329970868
0x0a829485bb137d0ac4b769af1de71ac45bf8cb97
- Realised P&L
- $-47.04
- Volume
- $284.93
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $6.43
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-16.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration41.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? · Yes | 0.226 | 0.142 | $6.30 | −$3.70 |
| Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 20% and 24.9%? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.007 | $0.08 | −$4.92 |
| Will Argentina’s annual inflation be less than 20%? · Yes | 0.089 | 0.004 | $0.05 | −$0.95 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? · Yes | 0.088 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.59at 0.736Will Russia capture Pokrovka by March 31?
- +$3.05at 0.620Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$1.85at 0.730Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
- +$0.20at 0.836Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
- +$-1.00at 0.056Netanyahu out by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-08 15:17 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.998 | $8.04 |
| 03-24 22:24 | Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.0882601523 | $4.00 |
| 03-20 19:18 | Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 20% and 24.9%? | BUY | 0.4699999887 | $5.00 |
| 03-20 19:18 | Will Argentina’s annual inflation be less than 20%? | BUY | 0.0890000004 | $1.00 |
| 03-20 19:15 | Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? | BUY | 0.2261938319 | $10.00 |
| 03-20 19:14 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BUY | 0.7299999679 | $5.00 |
| 03-20 19:13 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.6199999628 | $5.00 |
| 03-20 19:11 | Will Russia capture Rodynske by April 30? | BUY | 0.4224341894 | $10.00 |
| 03-15 01:34 | Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? | BUY | 0.3899998479 | $1.00 |
| 03-15 01:34 | Netanyahu out by March 31? | BUY | 0.0559999498 | $1.00 |
| 03-15 01:33 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | BUY | 0.8359998997 | $1.00 |
| 03-15 01:32 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.4099999836 | $5.00 |
| 03-14 16:32 | Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.3299999591 | $5.00 |
| 03-14 09:45 | Will Russia capture Pokrovka by March 31? | BUY | 0.7360108041 | $10.00 |
| 03-13 17:16 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.25 | $10.00 |