xfm-6-2
0x0a4847951584786d3251894ee7ee36c42b816b73
- Realised P&L
- $297.95
- Volume
- $3.2k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $107.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar9.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration46.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.535 | $107.00 | +$7.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$145.60at 0.480Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
- +$88.09at 0.511Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (February 8)
- +$55.44at 0.712Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?
- +$12.92at 0.932Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on February 19?
- +$8.40at 0.690Databricks IPO before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-23 02:37 | Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? | BUY | 0.5 | $100.00 |
| 05-22 02:55 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | BUY | 0.48 | $134.40 |
| 05-22 02:47 | Will Strava’s market cap be between $2B and $3B at market close on IPO day? | SELL | 0.5 | $145.00 |
| 04-12 04:40 | Will Strava’s market cap be between $2B and $3B at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.55 | $159.50 |
| 04-12 04:37 | Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET? | SELL | 0.91 | $254.80 |
| 03-18 11:23 | Databricks IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.72 | $201.60 |
| 03-03 09:11 | Databricks IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.69 | $193.20 |
| 02-19 07:12 | Brex IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.908 | $4.87 |
| 02-19 07:12 | Brex IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.909 | $35.85 |
| 02-15 15:00 | Discord IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.9 | $108.00 |
| 02-04 11:49 | Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (February 8) | BUY | 0.53 | $4.24 |
| 02-04 11:48 | Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (February 8) | BUY | 0.51 | $87.78 |
| 02-04 11:41 | Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.998 | $65.87 |
| 02-01 05:31 | Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.999 | $65.93 |