Dtpgglplm
0x09e6edbd3ede23feb58d1dfe09089f1405746f1d
- Realised P&L
- $13.44
- Volume
- $289.85
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $3.33
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration41.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on November 2? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.340 | $1.55 | +$0.55 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on November 2? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.340 | $0.94 | −$0.06 |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.285 | $0.84 | −$0.16 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 31? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$0.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.37at 0.009Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on October 29?
- +$4.81at 0.171Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on November 1?
- +$3.23at 0.191Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on October 30?
- +$2.19at 0.322Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on November 1?
- +$1.78at 0.301Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on October 29?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 12:05 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 12:02 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 11:23 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 07:11 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on November 1? | SELL | 0.9936989796 | $5.84 |
| 11-01 02:39 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 02:10 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.1699999983 | $1.00 |
| 10-31 01:37 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 31? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 08:38 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on October 31? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 10-29 07:39 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on October 30? | BUY | 0.1899999962 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 22:51 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 22:15 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on October 29? | SELL | 0.84 | $2.80 |
| 10-28 22:14 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on October 29? | SELL | 0.0884308576 | $8.62 |
| 10-28 14:42 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on October 29? | BUY | 0.0085113109 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 14:41 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on October 29? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |