Thombg
0x09e4639ba60d233146d27515b7dffbd23c0b93aa
- Realised P&L
- $2.5k
- Volume
- $324.8k
- Markets traded
- 129
- Open portfolio
- $14.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded129
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$517.96at 0.993Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
- +$457.87at 0.828Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
- +$344.98at 0.723Will Jacob Frey win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election?
- +$335.00at 0.804Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?
- +$320.53at 0.835Rachel Reeves out as Chancellor of the Exchequer by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 17:27 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.8299999999 | $500.00 |
| 10-24 07:12 | Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.025 | $0.81 |
| 10-24 07:10 | Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.0303431409 | $18.76 |
| 10-22 07:52 | Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.1129340452 | $1000.00 |
| 10-22 07:51 | Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.964877483 | $1.3k |
| 10-20 17:14 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7299999994 | $839.66 |
| 10-20 17:13 | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.977 | $500.00 |
| 10-20 17:13 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SELL | 0.9444544 | $1.3k |
| 09-27 12:01 | Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.8699999999 | $400.00 |
| 09-27 12:01 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5799999995 | $400.00 |
| 09-27 12:00 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.84 | $840.00 |
| 09-22 12:48 | Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.9751001209 | $200.00 |
| 09-22 12:47 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $600.00 |
| 09-22 12:47 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL | 0.971 | $777.06 |
| 09-22 12:46 | Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.8557895155 | $500.00 |