petersonoscar
0x09e326b542b7b99880d1c52ea40827fcf1fe59cc
- Realised P&L
- $-45.80
- Volume
- $12.1k
- Markets traded
- 77
- Open portfolio
- $48.03
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded77
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration78.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 5? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.795 | $37.92 | +$5.96 |
| Exact Score: Any Other Score? · Yes | 0.941 | 0.275 | $6.39 | −$15.46 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.745 | $3.73 | +$0.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.26at 0.701Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?
- +$0.20at 0.995Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31?
- +$0.18at 0.978Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
- +$0.16at 0.989Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April?
- +$0.12at 0.990Will Elon tweet 240-249 times April 4 - 11?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-03 16:02 | Exact Score: Any Other Score? | BUY | 0.9408114751 | $21.85 |
| 10-02 18:29 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 5? | BUY | 0.6699999935 | $31.96 |
| 01-31 13:42 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? | BUY | 0.9989999428 | $13.23 |
| 01-30 15:59 | Will Chainlink hit $15 in January? | BUY | 0.9980809051 | $12.88 |
| 01-30 14:24 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January? | BUY | 0.9979999726 | $13.63 |
| 01-30 13:23 | Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,475-$4,600 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $55.17 |
| 12-29 22:27 | Will Solana dip to $70 before 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.34 |
| 12-29 21:48 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.16 |
| 12-29 20:26 | Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.9989999763 | $33.18 |
| 12-29 20:04 | Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? | BUY | 0.9949999807 | $39.69 |
| 10-30 22:23 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $27.68 |
| 10-30 18:57 | Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $35.39 |
| 09-29 12:15 | Will Trump meet with Pope Leo in September? | BUY | 0.997999941 | $16.72 |
| 09-28 19:57 | Will Moonshot have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.49 |
| 09-28 19:56 | Will Solana dip to $150 in September? | BUY | 0.9979999814 | $19.62 |