0x09beD1976600971Fd9f9Db454a9c302C7A559c32-1779171276281
0x09bed1976600971fd9f9db454a9c302c7a559c32
- Realised P&L
- $33.3k
- Volume
- $1.80M
- Markets traded
- 119
- Open portfolio
- $4.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded119
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.875 | 0.865 | $2.0k | −$23.00 |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? · No | 0.865 | 0.865 | $1.7k | +$0.00 |
| Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.968 | 0.961 | $496.84 | −$3.62 |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? · No | 0.649 | 0.690 | $401.51 | +$23.83 |
| Will FIFA Sell Equity in the World Cup in 2026? · No | 0.975 | 0.981 | $50.04 | +$0.29 |
| Will Marseille win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? · No | 0.960 | 0.963 | $15.40 | +$0.04 |
| Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · No | 0.989 | 0.986 | $4.93 | −$0.02 |
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · No | 0.962 | 0.972 | $4.86 | +$0.05 |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$94.90 |
| Will AC Sparta Praha win on 2026-08-04? · No | 0.720 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.3kat 0.992France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
- +$12.8kat 0.929Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$5.1kat 0.951Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$3.1kat 0.985Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.7kat 0.947Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 18:40 | Will SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz win on 2026-08-05? | BUY | 0.969 | $998.07 |
| 08-05 18:35 | Will SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz win on 2026-08-05? | BUY | 0.968 | $10.36 |
| 08-04 19:28 | Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-08-04? | BUY | 0.97 | $1.9k |
| 08-02 14:42 | Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | BUY | 0.87 | $870.00 |
| 08-02 10:44 | Will Marseille win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? | BUY | 0.954 | $5.72 |
| 08-01 13:14 | Will FIFA Sell Equity in the World Cup in 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 13:10 | Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | BUY | 0.63 | $30.63 |
| 08-01 07:22 | Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.989 | $4.95 |
| 08-01 07:22 | Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.962 | $4.81 |
| 07-31 14:54 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.994 | $994.00 |
| 07-31 13:40 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.978 | $97.80 |
| 07-31 11:36 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.9145 | $54.87 |
| 07-31 10:37 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.907 | $4.54 |
| 07-28 12:34 | Will Roberto Mancini be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team? | BUY | 0.994 | $209.14 |
| 07-28 12:33 | Will Roberto Mancini be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team? | BUY | 0.993 | $40.71 |