aprsu
0x097933be741e8044c050124f331f80381500364b
- Realised P&L
- $-25.69
- Volume
- $673.47
- Markets traded
- 42
- Open portfolio
- $687.18
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded42
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.17at 0.144Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?
- +$2.36at 0.527Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?
- +$1.53at 0.647Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?
- +$1.47at 0.790Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- +$1.44at 0.726Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 12:41 | Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in October? | BUY | 0.976 | $29.28 |
| 09-04 00:49 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? | BUY | 0.971 | $48.55 |
| 08-19 15:34 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August? | BUY | 0.983 | $24.57 |
| 07-06 12:32 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.992 | $9.92 |
| 07-06 12:32 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.991 | $102.07 |
| 07-06 12:32 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.992 | $102.18 |
| 07-06 12:31 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-06? | BUY | 0.52 | $2.60 |
| 07-06 12:31 | Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw? | BUY | 0.27 | $1.35 |
| 07-06 12:30 | Will United States vs. Belgium end in a draw? | BUY | 0.2799999048 | $2.00 |
| 07-06 12:30 | United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.54 | $5.40 |
| 06-22 22:42 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY | 0.978 | $14.67 |
| 06-22 22:35 | Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 06-22 22:35 | Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 06-22 22:35 | Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | BUY | 0.8299999087 | $1.00 |
| 06-22 22:35 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? | BUY | 0.72 | $3.79 |