0x096e5aa5a428de1d6b14238a52300ec224009c9c
0x096e5aa5a428de1d6b14238a52300ec224009c9c
- Realised P&L
- $2.2k
- Volume
- $308.4k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $158.0k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration56.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration90.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.811 | 0.945 | $143.2k | +$20.3k |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.810 | 0.945 | $9.1k | +$1.3k |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NM-02 House seat? · Yes | 0.898 | 0.921 | $4.0k | +$101.56 |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.946 | $660.99 | +$25.16 |
| Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.021 | $539.15 | −$392.11 |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026? · No | 0.900 | 0.944 | $334.87 | +$15.44 |
| Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.371 | 0.310 | $134.85 | −$26.55 |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.962 | 0.968 | $38.72 | +$0.24 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.2kat 0.635Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?
- +$284.34at 0.984Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?
- +$234.10at 0.786Will CDU win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
- +$212.18at 0.994Starmer out by May 19, 2026?
- +$80.88at 0.990Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 17:57 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.91 | $1.1k |
| 10-14 17:52 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.91 | $4.7k |
| 09-18 18:26 | Will the Democratic Party win the NM-02 House seat? | BUY | 0.8975337338 | $3.2k |
| 09-18 16:24 | Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.051 | $357.00 |
| 09-10 17:08 | Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.028 | $112.00 |
| 09-09 22:36 | Will CDU win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.7796453454 | $854.93 |
| 09-09 22:29 | Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.3771434286 | $66.00 |
| 09-09 22:28 | Will the Democrats win the Maine governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.962 | $38.48 |
| 09-09 22:22 | Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.029 | $174.00 |
| 09-09 01:08 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $145.60 |
| 09-09 01:07 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $168.98 |
| 09-08 23:57 | Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.3669230769 | $95.40 |
| 09-08 23:56 | Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.031 | $288.30 |
| 06-29 19:28 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.83 | $4.0k |
| 06-10 02:33 | Graham Platner drops out before Maine Senate Dem primary? | SELL | 0.997 | $74.78 |