0x0927e6Ff39244ede2195e4E70a4f63cf142f6486-1761120818898
0x0927e6ff39244ede2195e4e70a4f63cf142f6486
- Realised P&L
- $-1.0k
- Volume
- $205.2k
- Markets traded
- 303
- Open portfolio
- $15.84
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded303
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration61.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration96.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on October 15? · No | 0.750 | 0.760 | $15.20 | +$0.20 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on October 15? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.001 | $0.64 | −$0.64 |
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 10? · No | 0.810 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$21.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$217.60at 0.932Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?
- +$203.65at 0.880Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?
- +$189.80at 0.650Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?
- +$184.66at 0.608Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?
- +$177.75at 0.375Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 16:33 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.27 |
| 10-14 09:36 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on October 14? | SELL | 0.999 | $49.95 |
| 10-12 20:51 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on October 12? | SELL | 0.982 | $29.44 |
| 10-11 19:23 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on October 11? | SELL | 0.961 | $28.82 |
| 10-10 12:13 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on October 10? | SELL | 0.999 | $19.97 |
| 10-10 12:13 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 10? | SELL | 0.997 | $4.99 |
| 10-10 04:57 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 10? | BUY | 0.71 | $3.55 |
| 10-10 04:48 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 10? | SELL | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 22:28 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on October 9? | SELL | 0.992 | $19.84 |
| 10-09 22:16 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on October 9? | SELL | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 10-09 22:16 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on October 9? | SELL | 0.999 | $10.20 |
| 10-09 14:57 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on October 9? | SELL | 0.12 | $2.40 |
| 10-09 14:57 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on October 9? | BUY | 0.21 | $4.20 |
| 10-08 16:57 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on October 8? | SELL | 0.998 | $29.94 |
| 10-08 14:32 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 8? | SELL | 0.002472 | $0.07 |