0x08fe738f9045d572fe5576a68cfae9a324921486
- Realised P&L
- not known
- Volume
- not known
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $402.39
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration38.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)83.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Chen Ting-fei win the next Tainan Mayor election? · Yes | 0.923 | 0.925 | $138.94 | +$0.25 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.945 | $94.50 | −$0.50 |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on November 2? · No | 0.917 | 0.665 | $73.13 | −$27.69 |
| Will Chen Su-yueh win the next Changhua County Magistrate election? · Yes | 0.854 | 0.515 | $46.35 | −$30.55 |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on November 2? · No | 0.744 | 0.575 | $46.00 | −$13.50 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on November 2? · No | 0.660 | 0.695 | $3.48 | +$0.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.68at 0.765Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on November 1?
- +$4.53at 0.984Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on October 31?
- +$1.50at 0.900US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
- +$1.05at 0.997Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on November 1?
- +$0.36at 0.997Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on November 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 15:08 | Will Chen Ting-fei win the next Tainan Mayor election? | BUY | 0.93 | $46.50 |
| 11-01 13:59 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.91 | $6.37 |
| 11-01 08:49 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on November 1? | SELL | 0.999 | $37.78 |
| 11-01 08:47 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on November 1? | SELL | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 11-01 08:42 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on November 1? | SELL | 0.999 | $99.90 |
| 11-01 08:40 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.998 | $499.00 |
| 11-01 08:37 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.93 | $4.65 |
| 11-01 08:31 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.95 | $95.00 |
| 11-01 08:27 | US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? | SELL | 0.93 | $46.50 |
| 11-01 07:40 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.997 | $199.40 |
| 11-01 07:05 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.976 | $19.52 |
| 11-01 07:05 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.977 | $7.82 |
| 11-01 05:51 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.94 | $9.39 |
| 11-01 05:47 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.93 | $18.60 |
| 11-01 05:43 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.92 | $4.60 |