0x08D3B3B85486415EB01D5670a75F2ea4958D4D01-1769819978040
0x08d3b3b85486415eb01d5670a75f2ea4958d4d01
- Realised P&L
- $956.22
- Volume
- $34.5k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $161.80
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.5kat 0.103Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$555.24at 0.351Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei
- +$310.71at 0.324Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$200.32at 0.599Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
- +$189.36at 0.345Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-23 18:18 | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? | BUY | 0.3455876121 | $100.00 |
| 05-23 18:17 | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? | BUY | 0.286674571 | $50.00 |
| 05-22 16:50 | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.0519640388 | $40.00 |
| 05-17 18:39 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.1699999986 | $100.00 |
| 05-17 18:23 | Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $100.00 |
| 05-17 18:23 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.3519999968 | $50.00 |
| 05-17 18:20 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | BUY | 0.0410000001 | $20.00 |
| 05-17 18:19 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | BUY | 0.0899999989 | $70.00 |
| 04-22 18:53 | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.0879999988 | $60.00 |
| 04-22 18:52 | Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | BUY | 0.0903898968 | $60.00 |
| 04-22 18:49 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | SELL | 0.999 | $500.31 |
| 03-17 21:10 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.16 | $50.00 |
| 03-17 21:09 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.018857339 | $76.00 |
| 03-06 19:37 | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | BUY | 0.16 | $40.00 |
| 03-06 19:36 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.1399999976 | $50.00 |