PolyBot

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Traders

0x08D3B3B85486415EB01D5670a75F2ea4958D4D01-1769819978040

0x08d3b3b85486415eb01d5670a75f2ea4958d4d01

Realised P&L
$956.22
Volume
$34.5k
Markets traded
25
Open portfolio
$161.80

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.8%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded25
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration48.1% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample8 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration40.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? · Yes0.1220.026$64.97$235.03
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes0.1700.065$38.24$61.76
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes0.0800.028$34.38$65.63
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No0.3520.171$24.22$25.78
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? · No0.2040.000$0.00$210.00
Will Iran strike Israel on March 2? · No0.0240.000$0.00$20.00
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? · Yes0.2600.000$0.00$60.00
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? · Yes0.4400.000$0.00$70.00
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026? · No0.1290.000$0.00$102.00
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? · Yes0.0900.000$0.00$70.00
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? · Yes0.0410.000$0.00$20.00
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? · Yes0.1720.000$0.00$160.00
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? · Yes0.1420.000$0.00$255.16
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? · No0.2240.000$0.00$240.00
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? · Yes0.0340.000$0.00$385.98

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
05-23 18:18Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?BUY0.3455876121$100.00
05-23 18:17Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?BUY0.286674571$50.00
05-22 16:50Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?BUY0.0519640388$40.00
05-17 18:39Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY0.1699999986$100.00
05-17 18:23Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?BUY0.08$100.00
05-17 18:23Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?BUY0.3519999968$50.00
05-17 18:20Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?BUY0.0410000001$20.00
05-17 18:19Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?BUY0.0899999989$70.00
04-22 18:53Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?BUY0.0879999988$60.00
04-22 18:52Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?BUY0.0903898968$60.00
04-22 18:49Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?SELL0.999$500.31
03-17 21:10Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?BUY0.16$50.00
03-17 21:09Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?BUY0.018857339$76.00
03-06 19:37Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?BUY0.16$40.00
03-06 19:36Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?BUY0.1399999976$50.00