simon51
0x08a46479e04468c75bf0839a58fd6cabdf8d5c3f
- Realised P&L
- $46.3k
- Volume
- $1.86M
- Markets traded
- 434
- Open portfolio
- $5.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded434
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration7.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? · Yes | 0.108 | 0.051 | $2.7k | −$3.1k |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · No | 0.244 | 0.305 | $2.0k | +$401.20 |
| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · Yes | 0.185 | 0.264 | $393.36 | +$118.26 |
| Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 · Over | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.1k |
| Stars vs. Ducks · Stars | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$294.53 |
| Canucks vs. Kraken · Kraken | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.5k |
| Oilers vs. Islanders · Oilers | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.7k |
| Panthers vs. Red Wings · Panthers | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$832.15 |
| Canucks vs. Stars · Stars | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.2k |
| Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? · Yes | 0.188 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$242.06 |
| Oilers vs. Maple Leafs · Maple Leafs | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$886.84 |
| Islanders vs. Hurricanes · Islanders | 0.346 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.5k |
| Utah vs. Sharks · Utah | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$970.19 |
| Will Switzerland win on 2025-09-08? · No | 0.333 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$764.04 |
| Kraken vs. Hurricanes · Kraken | 0.294 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$934.79 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$37.5kat 0.370Will the Florida Panthers win the 2025 Stanley Cup?
- +$17.0kat 0.436Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup?
- +$8.7kat 0.302Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance
- +$7.3kat 0.440Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance
- +$5.8kat 0.483Blues vs. Penguins
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 20:11 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.23 | $690.00 |
| 09-12 23:17 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.35 | $574.00 |
| 09-11 11:18 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.18 | $360.00 |
| 09-09 14:30 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.18 | $144.00 |
| 09-09 13:37 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.19 | $131.10 |
| 07-03 00:11 | Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.29850505 | $597.01 |
| 07-02 21:39 | Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.4675 | $390.36 |
| 07-02 15:52 | Spread: Spain (-1.5) | BUY | 0.5225 | $253.24 |
| 07-01 23:45 | Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina? | BUY | 0.0313577205 | $868.27 |
| 07-01 20:03 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.025 | $1.3k |
| 06-30 05:00 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.041 | $1.6k |
| 06-30 03:04 | Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5 | $2.0k |
| 06-29 21:07 | Spread: Germany (-1.5) | BUY | 0.37 | $1.1k |
| 06-29 21:05 | Spread: Germany (-1.5) | BUY | 0.37 | $357.84 |
| 06-29 17:38 | Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5 | $750.00 |